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Off The Wall

Aug 16, 2022

Is inflation slowing down? Can I expect future fed rate hikes? Does it even matter if we’re in a recession or not?

Get the answers in this episode of Off The Wall with hosts David Armstrong and Jessica Gibbs, featuring Monument’s portfolio managers Erin Hay, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM.

Listen in to this quarterly market update (Q3 of 2022) as they address the booming inflation debate, take an insightful look ahead to earnings season, and dive deep into the future of federal rate hikes. Plus, you’ll hear about what’s on their minds right now as we approach the middle of Q3.

“Just because you’re getting a lower inflation number, it doesn’t mean that prices are coming down, necessarily, it just means that they’re going up at a slower rate. Disinflation is not deflation.” – David Armstrong


Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

[00:50] Introducing Nate Tonsager & The topic of today’s episode

[02:40] The State of Nate: Inflation & Federal rate hikes

[05:29] Does it matter if inflation goes down or not?

[09:23] Will the market rebound in Q3 (July/August) continue in the short-term?

[12:48] When should I re-enter the market after a “storm”? Should I wait to invest my cash until I feel better?

[13:55] Will the market rebound in Q3 continue in the long-term? What is the probability of a recession happening in the future?

[17:45] What is MONCON? & The MONCON level we’re at right now.

[25:00] Why we don’t pay attention to individual earnings reports and expectations.

[32:37] The future of fed rate hikes & How to use the CME FedWatch Tool

[40:17] What’s on our minds right now: Outperformance of small cap stocks & The breakout between services and goods inflation.


Relevant Resources & Episodes Mentioned:

Article about MONCON:

CME FedWatch Tool:


Learn about and connect with Nate Tonsager, CIPM:

Learn about and connect with Erin Hay, CFA:


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About “Off the Wall”:

Off the Wall is a podcast aimed at helping you answer the questions: What is the point of my wealth, and what actions can I take to accomplish that purpose? Your answers to those questions will be different from everyone else’s. As Wealth Managers, we’re skilled at helping our clients think through these challenging, but important, questions. 


Learn more about our hosts, Dave and Jessica on our website at


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